Yesterday, the farthest south that the river was open was Kalskag and even then it was just "some open". Now Kalskag is "mostly open" and the "some open" part has creeped down almost to Bethel. Remember, Bethel is the second dot up from the coast on the Kuskokwim river, which is the river in the SW part of the state.
I really think my date of May 15th at 6am could be a good one. That is about 30 hours from now. It could happen. We got a bit of rain showers today...I wonder how that affects breakup. Tonight it's supposed to snow...do you think that would delay or speed up breakup? I havent been down by the river for a few days so I have no idea what it looks like out there.